Lies! Damn lies and statistics as Mark Twain once exclaimed. Now with the California Association of Realtors June 2008 Economic profile you too can be an expert when you opine about our economic future.

These statistics reveal the strength and weakness in a wide range of economic data related to the real estate market, employment and population trends in the San Diego economy.

sandiego0608.pdf

Most interesting trends are the increase in foreclosures, the decrease in median prices listed by city, the dramatic increase in sales and which segments of the market have the most activity. Please keep in mind that median price decreases are being driven by foreclosures which account for 25% of total sales mostly in the lower priced segments of the market while sales have dropped off in the upper priced segments. This shift in activity has a tendency to make median price decreases more dramatic. Investors are buying heavily into the lower priced homes. Tremendous opportunities exist in North San Diego County Coastal cities like Oceanside, Carlsbad and Encinitas.

Damn lies and statistics! As I’ve mentioned before, all of the statistics regarding unsold inventory are squewed by the number of short sales that are listed in the inventory. Most short sales are unsellable because lenders can’t or won’t meet the terms a potential buyers offer, which bloats the inventory numbers. Buyers find themselves competing with investors, multiple offers, overbids and transactions that don’t close.

More damn lies and statistics…Some areas are showing a 20% year to date decrease in median price. However, for those who are financing their purchase mortgage rates have gone up 20% in recent weeks from 5.3% to 6.3%. So keep an eye on mortgage rates. They can easily erase any savings to be had by lower prices.

The following information was reported from HomeDex for the month of January 2008.

· The median price for all homes in North San Diego County – single-family
detached and single- family attached – declined to $480,000 in January 2008 from
$485,000 in December 2007.

· The median-priced single-family detached (SFD) home in North San Diego
County decreased 1.14 percent to $562,500 in January 2008 from $569,000 in
December 2007. SFD median prices in Non-North County zip codes decreased
5.86 percent from $450,000 in December 2007 to $423,650 in January 2008.

· Median SFD prices in North San Diego County fell 10 percent from
$625,000 January 2007 to January 2008.

The median price fell 18.05 percent in Non-North County from $516,938 from January 2007 to January 2008.