Foreclosure Update
The number of notices of default (NOD) dropped by 58% from August 08 to September 08. This drastic decline in NOD reflects the government’s effort to require lenders to work with distressed borrowers. Lenders are offering better terms to existing borrowers to avoid foreclosure. I have seen lenders drop the loan balance by as much as $250,000 on a $1.5M loan. However, this recent data also represents the fifth straight month decline in NOD and offers support that the San Diego housing market is bottoming out. foreclosures in Oceanside, Carlsbad, San Marcos, Encinitas and Vista are much harder to purchase with multiple bids and overbids the norm.

San Diego Weekly Foreclosure Lists

Please click on the link below to receive the latest recorded foreclosures (Notices of Default, Trustee Sales, & Bank Owned) for the week ending 10/15/08. The lists are searchable by zip code or city by using the find function under the edit pull down menu. If you have any questions please call me at
760-431-8724.

http://www.easyhouserewards.eme01.com/files_landing_page.php

As usual the bean counters only know what happened after the harvest. If you really want to know what is going in Real Estate read Blogs such as mine, of course, SoCalHomeBlog.com or any of the numerous others that have the true pulse of the market . This is really old news. Those who are in the market have noticed a dramatic increase in activity since late spring of this year. Homes in Oceanside, Carlsbad, Encinitas, Vista and San Marcos are selling quickly with short sales and foreclosures driving the market.

“The National Association of Realtors says pending U.S. home sales rose in June in an unexpected piece of positive news for the beleaguered market.

The group’s seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for existing homes rose 5.3 percent to 89 from a downwardly revised May reading of 84.5. The index was 12 percent below year-ago levels.

Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR had predicted the index would fall to 84.3. The index, which sunk to a record low of 83 in March, stood at 101.4 in June 2007.”

August 6, 2008 The Associated Press.

HomeDexT June 2008 Summary Report
Single-Family Detached Homes

Rancho Santa Fe (92067), Del Mar (92014), Solana Beach (92075), Carmel
Valley (92130), and Cardiff (92007) were the least affordable areas in North San
Diego County with affordability levels below five percent.

Carlsbad (92008, 92009, 92011), Rancho Bernardo (92127), Bonsall (92003),
Escondido (92029), and Encinitas (92024) reported affordability percentages
between five and nine percent.

Carlsbad (92010), Rancho Penasquitos (92129), Rancho Bernardo (92128),
Valley Center (92082), Poway (92064), Fallbrook (92028), Pala, (92059), and
San Marcos (920 had affordability percentages between 10 and 19 percent.

Ramona (92065), Oceanside (92056, 92057), Vista (92081), and Escondido
(92025) had affordability rates between 25 percent and 27 percent. Escondido
(92026, 92027), San Marcos (92069), Oceanside (92054), and Vista (92084)
reported affordability percentages between 30 percent and 39 percent.

Vista (92083) had a 50 percent affordability percentage, the highest in North County.

Prepared for the North San Diego County Association of REALTORS® by Robert Brown, Ph.D.
Department of Economics California State University, San Marcos. Inquiries may be directed to Robert Brown
rbrown@csusm.edu

If you are like most of us the recent bail out of Bear Stearns’ was just a passing blip in the never ending river of talking head blather and hype… most of it BS… about real estate, finance and investing. However, a closer look at the magnitude of exposure Bear Stearns’ has in derivatives gives us a prospective about why the bailout was necessary. My mentor and associate Pat Kitano has a great article about this mega event and what it really means.

So with all the hype going on about real estate slumping, tanking and all that in the Oceanside Carlsbad, Vista, San Marcos and Encinitas areas some people actually believe that sellers will be paying buyers to take their property, perhaps giving them a monthly stipend, or arranging a marriage with their daughters and mowing the yard for them until 2020. REALITY CHECK…there are some great buys to be found but don’t miss the boat. According to HomeDex median prices in the North San Diego County Coastal area actually increased about 5% in April. There are homes on the market in the North San Diego County and many other economically stable areas that couldn’t be built for their current asking price. According to some, so called, authorities we are 75% through the sub-prime fiasco. So what! Prices are down, interest rates are low, inflation is rising and what better asset to own than Real Estate? Real Estate is personal shelter, tax shelter, it doesn’t evaporate like a stock can, you can live in it , rent it, insure it so if it burns to the ground it can be rebuilt and underneath is the land value. Real Estate is a tangible asset, not a piece of paper like a Bear Stearns’ derivative.

Attached is an ex-script about sales trends in San Diego courtesy of the National Association of Realtors and Yahoo. There are plenty of good buys, but how long will it last? This should give some indication. If you have any questions contact your trusted real estate professional. Chances are their guess is as good as any.
For those waiting for a bottom, consider where else in the world is a better place to live than San Diego County. Also, take into consideration that almost all foreclosures, in that hot segment of the market, sell for 98% of list price. In addition, many of the coastal area foreclosures get multiple offers. So it may be time to let that pent up need for a home along the San Diego Coast express itself. There are some fantastic buys to be found in Oceanside, Carlsbad and Encinitas but you have to be ready. Like my karate Sensi used to say “the time to strike is when the opportunity presents itself”.

Matt Woolsey, Forbes.com

Apr 10th, 2008